Greater Geelong · Southern Growth Corridor
Armstrong Creek & Mount Duneed Property Investment
Why Armstrong Creek and Mount Duneed continue to attract property investors, and how to choose the right property within them.
Armstrong Creek and Mount Duneed have grown from largely greenfield land into one of the most significant growth corridors in Greater Geelong.
For property investors, the attraction isn’t simply the supply of new house-and-land packages. It’s the combination of fundamentals working together.
Population growth, employment, infrastructure, education, retail and services, transport connectivity, relative affordability and a coastal lifestyle, all within a long-term plan to create a substantial new community.
The City of Greater Geelong describes Armstrong Creek as the largest contiguous growth area in Victoria: about 2,500 hectares of developable land, planned for around 22,000 homes, 55,000 to 65,000 residents and 22,000 jobs.
This isn’t just another subdivision. It’s a major part of Greater Geelong’s long-term growth strategy.
But that doesn’t make every property in Armstrong Creek or Mount Duneed a good investment. Location, property selection, supply, price and strategy still matter, and that’s what this page is about.
Why Greater Geelong Matters
To understand Armstrong Creek and Mount Duneed, you need to understand the bigger Geelong story. Greater Geelong’s estimated resident population was 295,052 at 30 June 2025, and Council forecasts about 442,000 by 2046.
More importantly, Geelong isn’t growing only because people want cheaper housing. The local economy is expanding too.
According to the City of Greater Geelong’s work and investment data, jobs have grown by an average of 4.3% a year over the past five years. The largest employers are:
- Health care and social assistance (about 30,000 jobs)
- Retail trade and education and training (about 15,000 jobs each)
- Construction (about 14,000) and manufacturing (about 11,000)
- Accommodation, food and professional services
That diversity matters. A regional market that depends heavily on one industry carries extra risk. Geelong has become a much broader economic centre, not simply a lifestyle or commuter market.
Armstrong Creek: One of Victoria’s Largest Growth Areas
Scale is one of Armstrong Creek’s defining features. Council calls it one of the largest growth fronts in the country.
The plan isn’t simply to release residential lots. Council’s vision for Armstrong Creek includes schools, retail and activity centres, employment precincts, parks and open space, walking and cycling paths, public transport, community facilities, and a mix of conventional, medium-density and retirement housing.
Successful growth corridors need more than houses. They need the services that turn new estates into a functioning community.
Seven precincts, each with its own role
The growth area is planned as seven precincts: the Armstrong Creek Town Centre, Armstrong Creek East, Armstrong Creek West, Marshall, Horseshoe Bend, and the North East and Western industrial precincts. Each has its own identity, and each will perform differently as the area matures.
Click to enlarge
Precinct map
The Armstrong Creek Town Centre and Surrounding Precincts
See where the Town Centre sits in relation to the seven precincts, the employment land and the surrounding estates. For the full detail on land use, transport and staging, download the official structure plan.
Download the Structure PlanWhy Mount Duneed is part of the story
Mount Duneed sits alongside Armstrong Creek, on its southern and western edge, and is seeing significant new residential development, including the Armstrong Creek West precinct. For investors, it offers a way into the growth of southern Geelong with newer housing, larger blocks in some estates, family-oriented communities, and easy access to both Armstrong Creek’s amenities and the Surf Coast.
But suburb-level analysis isn’t enough. Estate selection matters. Within an estate, street and property selection matter.
Population Creates Demand, but Supply Matters Too
Population growth is a fundamental driver of housing demand, and Greater Geelong is growing strongly: from 282,809 residents in June 2023 to 295,052 in June 2025, an increase of more than 12,000 people in two years.
At the same time, Geelong has substantial future housing capacity. Council says the Northern and Western Geelong growth areas could accommodate around 110,000 new residents, and Geelong’s growth areas combined have the potential to welcome 175,000.
Growing population
- Increasing potential demand
- More tenants and future buyers
- More reason for services to follow
Large development pipeline
- Continuing new supply
- More competing properties
- More choice for tenants and buyers
Growth doesn’t automatically mean scarcity. So the useful question isn’t “Is Armstrong Creek growing?” It is:
Which properties are likely to stay desirable as Armstrong Creek continues to mature?
Infrastructure, Education and Employment
Without infrastructure, population growth creates pressure rather than value. Armstrong Creek has been planned around integrated delivery of roads, public transport, schools, retail, parks, community facilities, employment land and walking and cycling connections, rather than leaving them until the area is mature.
Armstrong Creek Town Centre
The Armstrong Creek Town Centre is planned as the major commercial, civic and social hub for the surrounding communities, supported by neighbourhood and local centres such as Warralily Village. For residents that means shopping, dining, services, jobs and community facilities close to home. For investors, the relevance is simple: better amenity supports tenant and owner-occupier demand.
Video: the Armstrong Creek Town Centre
Education and healthcare
The area is close to Deakin University’s Waurn Ponds campus and Epworth Geelong, with University Hospital Geelong in central Geelong, plus schools within Armstrong Creek and surrounding suburbs, and more planned as the population grows.
Jobs close to home
One of the stronger parts of the Armstrong Creek story is that employment is built into the plan. Council expects more than 22,000 jobs within the growth area, including about 3,500 at the major activity centre and around 15,000 across two industrial and employment precincts.
People want to live near work, education, transport, services, family and lifestyle. A suburb that only provides housing depends on residents commuting elsewhere. A suburb that develops its own jobs and services can become more self-sustaining.
The Geelong Lifestyle Advantage
Armstrong Creek and Mount Duneed benefit from something that’s hard to manufacture: proximity to the coast. Torquay, Barwon Heads and the Surf Coast beaches are a short drive away, along with Waurn Ponds, parks and recreation, and Geelong’s established services.
Space + lifestyle + employment + affordability + connectivity
That combination appeals to both owner-occupiers and renters, and it’s one reason Greater Geelong has attracted so many people relocating from Melbourne and elsewhere.
Connectivity to Geelong and Melbourne
Armstrong Creek sits about 10 kilometres south of the Geelong CBD. Marshall Station provides rail access to Geelong and Melbourne, and the road network links the area with the Surf Coast.
In early 2026, the City of Greater Geelong endorsed an Armstrong Creek rail spur as a priority project: about two kilometres of track from Marshall to a new station at the Armstrong Creek Town Centre, with a projected 11-minute trip to central Geelong.
The rail spur is a Council priority and advocacy project. It is not funded or committed infrastructure. We value existing and funded infrastructure, and treat proposals like this as potential upside, never as the investment case.
What the Local Numbers Show
Be careful with broad claims about “Geelong prices”. Greater Geelong contains many very different markets. The Real Estate Institute of Victoria’s suburb data shows how different they are:
REIV data puts gross rental yields in both suburbs at about 4.1%, with homes typically selling in under a month. By comparison, the Geelong 3220 median house price is about $930,000, with a gross yield nearer 3.3%.
These are current-quarter medians and they move. When we assess a specific Armstrong Creek or Mount Duneed property, we use local comparable sales and rental evidence, not a broad Geelong or suburb median.
Rental demand
Rental demand is a key part of the investment case, but rental statistics change quickly. Don’t rely on a single advertised rent or a historical vacancy rate. We look at current comparable rents and listings, vacancy and days on market, tenant demographics, competing new properties, property size, condition and position, and future rental supply.
Will this specific property stay attractive to tenants as thousands more homes are delivered?
What Hotspotting Says About Geelong
Hotspotting, the research firm founded by Terry Ryder, has tracked Greater Geelong closely for years, and its findings support the fundamentals above.
In Hotspotting’s January 2026 outlook, Analysts predict a big year ahead, Terry Ryder pointed to a 29% rise in Geelong sales activity over 12 months, with more than three-quarters of Geelong suburbs ranked positively. Regional Victoria had moved from one of the weaker markets a year earlier to a national standout.
That builds on a longer track record. In 2023, Hotspotting ranked Geelong number one in its Top 10 National Best Buys, citing population growth, economic diversity and major infrastructure, and included Armstrong Creek in its national Top 75 Supercharged Suburbs.
Rising sales activity is often an early sign of price growth, which is why Hotspotting tracks it. But a suburb ranking tells you where to look, not what to buy. We still assess each estate, street and property on its own merits.
Why House and Land Can Make Sense Here
Armstrong Creek and Mount Duneed are particularly relevant for investors considering new house-and-land property. New homes can offer:
- Modern construction, contemporary design and energy efficiency
- Lower initial maintenance and builder warranties
- Strong tenant appeal
- Depreciation benefits for eligible investors
- Predictable construction specifications
But the land still matters. Two houses can achieve similar rents yet have very different investment characteristics because of land size, position, frontage, surrounding development, access to amenity and future competing supply. That’s why we don’t believe in simply buying the cheapest package available. Our comparison of existing homes vs house and land explains the trade-offs.
Too Much Similar Stock
This is perhaps the most important warning for anyone considering Armstrong Creek. Growth corridors can deliver strong population growth while producing large volumes of new housing at the same time. Be careful about buying a property that is:
- Virtually identical to hundreds of surrounding properties
- Far from established amenities
- On a small block with little to set it apart
- Competing with large volumes of new stock
- Priced at a premium to comparable existing homes
Armstrong Creek is already growing. The real question is which property is positioned to benefit from that growth.
Location efficiency
For some investors, the alternative to Armstrong Creek is moving further out to find something cheaper. But a cheaper property isn’t necessarily cheaper if residents must travel long distances for work, education, shopping, healthcare and recreation. Armstrong Creek’s mix of new housing, planned employment and infrastructure, and proximity to both Geelong and the Surf Coast makes it a different proposition.
What Makes an Investment-Grade Armstrong Creek Property?
We look for a combination of fundamentals, not a single selling point.
1. Location
Close to employment, schools, retail, transport and recreation.
2. Land
Where appropriate, a meaningful land component relative to the purchase price.
3. Property design
A functional home that appeals to the target tenant and a future buyer.
4. Rental demand
Evidence that tenants actually want this type of property.
5. Owner-occupier appeal
A property that doesn’t depend entirely on investor demand.
6. Supply
A clear understanding of how much competing property is being delivered nearby.
7. Infrastructure
Existing and funded infrastructure, rather than speculative promises.
8. Price
A purchase price that makes sense against comparable properties.
9. Future resale
Who is likely to buy the property from you? This last question is often overlooked.
Why Armstrong Creek and Mount Duneed Deserve Attention
The fundamentals
- Population: Greater Geelong keeps growing, with strong forecasts
- Employment: jobs growing across multiple sectors
- Infrastructure: planned into the growth-area framework
- Housing: around 22,000 homes planned
The appeal
- Lifestyle: Geelong access plus the Surf Coast
- Affordability: more space than similar money buys in Melbourne
- Demand: population, jobs and lifestyle working together
But we don’t believe in buying a suburb
A suburb can have excellent fundamentals and still contain poor investment properties. You can buy the wrong estate, street, block, house design, builder, contract, price or rental proposition. That’s why our focus is investment-grade property, not “hotspots”.
Strategy Before Property
We start with you: your budget, strategy, objectives, risk tolerance, timeframe and desired outcome. Then we determine whether Armstrong Creek, Mount Duneed or another location is appropriate.
If it is, we assess each opportunity on location, infrastructure, population, employment, rental demand, supply, land, property quality, price, capital growth fundamentals and future resale demand.
Armstrong Creek and Mount Duneed are no longer speculative paddocks on the edge of Geelong. They’re part of one of Victoria’s largest planned growth areas, in a growing, diversifying regional economy. But growth doesn’t make every property a good investment. The challenge is separating growth from speculation, affordability from value, rental yield from sustainable demand, and a new property from an investment-grade property.
Looking to invest in Armstrong Creek or Mount Duneed?
Let’s Find the Right Property, Not Just the Right Suburb
At Investment Property Melbourne, powered by properT network, we help investors assess opportunities across Greater Geelong and other strategic Victorian growth locations. Our focus isn’t just finding you a property. It’s understanding why that property makes sense for your strategy.
Why Invest in Armstrong Creek
Our more detailed analysis of Armstrong Creek’s population growth, infrastructure, employment, retail, rental market and investment fundamentals.
Investment Property Geelong
Our broader overview of Greater Geelong: population growth, economic transformation, infrastructure and major growth areas.
Time to Invest in Geelong and Lara, Victoria
The wider Geelong and Lara growth story, and why the region deserves a place in a Victorian property strategy.
Where Are the Top Regional Hotspots to Invest In?
Why Geelong sits alongside Ballarat and other regional centres on analysts’ watch lists, and the land-supply pressures behind it.
Autumn 2026 Property Market Insights: Melbourne & Regional Victoria
How internal migration and infrastructure are driving demand in Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo.
Australian Property Market Update, March 2026
Why Melbourne and regional Victoria are leading the national recovery, including Greater Geelong and Armstrong Creek.
House and Land Packages Melbourne & Victoria
How we assess new house-and-land opportunities across Melbourne and regional Victoria.
- City of Greater Geelong, Armstrong Creek: whole of growth area
- City of Greater Geelong, Our vision for Armstrong Creek
- City of Greater Geelong, Community profile
- City of Greater Geelong, Work and investment
- City of Greater Geelong, Geelong’s growth
- Real Estate Institute of Victoria, suburb data for Armstrong Creek, Mount Duneed and Geelong
- Hotspotting, Analysts predict a big year ahead, January 2026
- Geelong Times, Geelong shows market rebound as top 10 national best buys revealed, September 2023
- Geelong Times, Locals back push for Armstrong Creek rail, March 2026
General information only. Investment Property Melbourne and properT network do not provide personal financial, legal, tax or lending advice. Figures are from the sources and periods stated and may change. Property investment carries risk, including the risk of loss. Seek independent professional advice before making any decision.
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