Melbourne continues to lead nation’s population growth

May 1, 2013 source The Age

 Melbourne has been growing faster than Sydney over the past decade becoming Australia’s most populous city in 2053!

MELBOURNE POPULATION PROJECTED TO BE 7.7 million people by 2051 !!

Eight Million Reasons to Invest in Melbourne

According to Te Age : Greater Melbourne has again dominated Australia’s population growth, adding 77,242 people in 2011-12, to reach a population of 4.35 million as at end June 2013. This is a growth of 95,500 or 2.2% up on last year!

The core of Melbourne grew by 22.7%  or 29,300 new residents during 2012-13, growing faster than any other in Australia according to the ABS in the year to June 2013.

Inner Suburbs such as : Abbotsford grew by 19%, Southbank and Docklands by 15% and North Melbourne by 6% and overall the inner core of Melbourne grew by 10.5% in population numbers.

By the year 2053, Melbourne is planned to have 8 Million people! (according to the ABS)

Overall, the state of Victoria added 106,800 new residents where as NSW grew by 103,200 and Queensland by 88,600

Australia’s population reached 23.1m in June 2013 increasing by 407,000 (1.8%) … all requiring a roof over their heads!

New estimates released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics show five of the eight municipalities recording the nation’s biggest growth were in Melbourne – three in the outer northern and western suburbs, one in the south-east, and the city of Melbourne itself.

Victoria added 88,966 people to close the financial year with 5.624 million people, just under 25 per cent of all Australians. Australia added almost 360,000 people, and the Bureau estimates its population hit 23 million last week.

It was the 11th year in a row that the bureau estimates that Melbourne led the nation’s growth. In that time, the city’s population has grown by more than 750,000, or almost a quarter, imposing new strains on an infrastructure designed for far fewer people.

Planning Minister Matthew Guy said the city’s population was growing by 1500 a week, or equal to the combined growth of Brisbane, Adelaide, Gold Coast, Newcastle and Canberra.

”There is no sign of that growth slowing. That growth is continuing and has continued now for the best part of 10 years,” Mr Guy said. ”It is the policy challenge we face in planning for today and the future.”

He said many of the problems in urban areas arose because growth was not managed well in the last decade: ”We didn’t plan well on a state level for growth.”

Wyndham, centred on Werribee, had the biggest growth of any municipality in Australia, adding 12,822 people. That is more than the entire annual population growth of Victoria at one stage under the Kennett government.

Whittlesea had the second biggest growth in the nation. Melton was fifth, Casey sixth, and the City of Melbourne eighth.

The city’s population centre remained in Glen Iris, but most of its population growth came north and west of the Yarra, a dramatic change from 20th-century patterns, which saw it spread in a lopsided way to the south-east.

According to RP Data their April Key Messages included :

• Melbourne has the greatest number of suburbs across Australia offering the potential for property investors to double their money in 10 years if house prices in these suburbs continue to appreciate at current rates.
• According to RP Data, a compounding growth rate of 7.2% over a 10 year period will result in a doubling of the price of an asset.
• Based on this calculation, Victoria has had the greatest number of suburbs on the list with 68, of which 38 of these are suburbs in Melbourne.

Melbourne Property Market Primed for Growth

Melbourne achieved another solid year (it’s best) property wise during 2013 where according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) the housing market rose by 7% to 10% over the past 12 months. Securley underpinned by market fundamentals in Melbourne and key regional markets with projected further growth in selected areas. Property investors continue to invest in melbourne with a 24% annual rise in loans to property investors in Victoria.

According to some, the previous 3 years were negative ones meaing there is stil plenty of room for further growth in the coming years with many pockets emittign growth signals.

Suburbs with solid infrastructure, affordability and transport links are more attractive to investors and home owners. This covers many suburbs in inner and outer Melbourne but the greatest concentration of projected hot spots inludes sout-east from the CBD including Dandenong, Casey, Kingston and Mornington Peninsula says Terry Ryder.

The Plan Melbourne document has nominated suburbs as “national employment clusters” and “key activity and job centres” and thus are rating highly on Hot Spotting sites and hubs to invest in. They also provide good transport links and proximity to job nodes.

Investment hot spots could thus be the municipalities of :  Casey (city of Casey), Monash, Brimbank (Sunshine), Dandenong, Whittlesea (Epping) and Wyndham. Currently these municipalities remain under rated by property buyers but have the potential based on Plan Melbourne to provide for solid growth over time.

City of  Casey : Berwick, Hallam, Cranbourne East, Cranbourne North and Hallam

City of Dandenong : Noble Park, Springvale, Keysborough, Dandenong and Dandenong North

Fishermans Bend;  Monash;  La Trobe;  Sunshine;  East Werribee;  Parkville

The 5 areas with the largest growth in Australia are all in Victoria on the outskirts of a fast growing Melbourne and include : South Morant (32,200), then Caroline Springs, Tarneit and Point Cook each with a growth of 20,000 people according to ABS figures for 2012

NB : Brimbank has a planned $800 million dollar transport hub which will change the face of Brimbank forever

Whether House and Land, Units or apartments make for stronger investment vehicles time will tell. According to property analysts such as Terry Ryder these areas are well worth considering for medium to long term investment potential.

Our Comment : We have always been positive and continue to remain positive about property in Melbourne due to high demand for dwellings to own or rent. This continues to be the case which is every investors opportunity. Rents continue to strengthen especially in the inner suburbs where demand is at its strongest. On the understanding that most people want to live, play and work close to a CBD or ‘planned for work nodes’ – it makes sense to secure an investment property within 8 – 10km of the CBD or these planned for work nodes, in property that the majority of people can afford to buy or rent (ie. $350,000 to $650,000)

$27 Billion Dollars committed to new infrastructure projects throughout greater Melbourne to plan for increased population growth to be spent on :

• New suburbs to cater for 610,000 new dwellings in growth locations
• 1.57 million new dwellings required to cater for the increased demand
• 960,000 of these dwellings in already established areas
• 610,000 in growth areas
• 300,000 new jobs expected to be created in the central city
• New roads
• New tunnel
• New airport
• New rail lines

YOUR OPPORTUNITY : Governments who invest are just like companies and expect a return on their investment! Their investment is thus your opportunity to grow and secure your wealth by also investing where governments are, invest where new industry is moving in, invest where the population growth is happening, where new jobs are being created and where new infrastructure is being implemented … solid rental yields plus capital growth potential for investors.